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Feb
27-Mar 3, 2006
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Farewell
to Don Knotts.
A terrific actor and the brightest
star in the best TV
show
ever - The Andy Griffith Show.
He was from my hometown,
Morgantown,
West Virginia.

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Mar
3
Starting next week I am not going
to comment so much about my own holdings, you can always read about them in My
Track Record. I will instead try to stick to one or two topics and include some
relevant links. The focus will be on short-term trading.
*******
This
morning I woke up with the feeling I should sell everything. Too bad I didn't
have this feeling yesterday before Intel decided to roil the markets with it's
warning. Sometimes you just need a fresh start. My losers have been steadily deteriorating
while a few winners have kept the bottom line from collapsing. I've had six or
seven stocks in my porfolio lately and that is not a huge number but I have failed
to trade any of them well. I've let winners carry the losers. Then the winners
falter and I'm left with nothing but misery.
Intel showed a nice bounce
after opening down so much. I got out at 20.25 after the stock traded as low as
19.86. Next in the crosshairs - EBAY and RMBS
Sold EBAY and NBR for small
profits. I'm hoping to get out of RMBS and ANN next week and then move to a new
broker. I've been a loyal customer of Muriel Siebert for many years and they are
excellent in every way. But 14.95 a trade for all the trades I do is just too
much. My new broker is 1 dollar for 100 shares, 5$ for 500 shares and .006 / share
after that. You do have to trade actively to get those rates. They seem to have
a good realtime platform for scanning the market. Seems like an easier way to
do what I've been trying to do with Yahoo realtime.
Mar
2
I couldn't find any Indian stocks
to trade yesterday. That's not surprising since the Indian market rose 40% last
year. I was hoping that some volume might flow into these stocks due to Bush's
visit. Bush has a 90% approval rating in India and a 50% approval here at home
(my home).
*******
Are
women better traders than men? Karen Cramer is portrayed as an excellent trader
in Jim Cramer's book, "Confessions of a Street Addict". Dana Galante
is profiled in Jack D. Schwager's "Stock Market Wizards". Now my wife
has decided to test her ideas with some real money. She starts off her trading
career with a short sale! Here is the analysis of the trade so far:
First
we compared a number of retail stocks that she is familier with. Among those considered,
The Gap, Payless shoes, Target, Ann Taylor, Kmart, and Stein Mart. ANN seemed
like the most promising trade. On the plus side (as a short), high P/E, declining
stock price today after retail sales numbers were released today, and my wife's
feeling that the prices are too high in the store and the sales people are too
pushy. On the negative side - the high P/E indicates that there are a great many
investors that believe in the stock, the stock is in a steady uptrend, the company
has no debt.
My wife (the new trading goddess) let me make the actual trade,
trusting my judgement as to when to pull the trigger. I shorted into mid-morning
rally. The stock continued it's rally but stalled shortly after 11am. From here,
the trade is in her hands. May the trading gods smile upon her!
*******
Nabors
NBR has never been a good trading vehicle for me. That stock reverses position
quicker than John Kerry! I was up 3% today and should have placed my "break
even" stop but I didn't realize I had been up that much and the stop was
never placed. Then the stock reversed and went straight down into loss territory.
I almost sold but with oil being up I thought there was a chance for a reversal.
To my amazment, the stock recovered nicely.
Mar
1
I've got plenty of trading ideas
to start off the month.
1. Daytrading biotechs. These little babies are mostly
under 10$ and very volitile. Just trade well.
2. Short stocks. There are still
a few highflyers to sell before everything comes crashing down.
3. India.
Bush's trip should be good for a little action in these stocks. Now which one
to buy?
SIFY, REDF, PTI, SAY, IBN, HDB, HDB, INFY, MTE, PTI, RDY, TTM, VSL,
WIT
4. Read up. There are great companies and great stocks that I might be
able to hold for more than 20 minutes if I can just get caught up on my reading.
Unfortunately, I'm having too much fun reading my new copy of "Reminiscences
of a Stock Operator". I loaned out my first copy years ago and it's a great
read the 2nd time around - now that I've got some real trading experience.
5.
Energy.The action isn't over in this volitile sector.
In
spite of the healthy market rally today, I could not find anything to buy, sell,
or trade. The QQQQ would have been ok but I have no faith in a follow-through
rally tomorrow. The one Indian stock I considered was SAY but there wasn't the
volume I wanted to see. RMBS is turning into the worst trade of the year. The
litigation risk is high and there's a real chance I'll be killed on this stock
if I don't get out soon. I still think RMBS will collapse - I hope I'm still in
it when it does.
Feb
28
Holy cow, what a day. The
market's volitility is low (so they say) but my stocks were all over the place
today. My goal for March - to trade well and not be greedy. The most valuable
thing to know when trading stocks: Know yourself.
My stats for Feb - not
very good I'm afraid. I made more than my usual number of mistakes. 11 trades
completed and only 5 were profitable. The average trade was up 0.2% and the account
gained 0.3%.
*******
Stock update: Bought Nabors
(NBR) as a speculation on rebounding energy. INTC is up in a down market - hold.
All the shorts are behaving as predicted. No serious profit yet. Stopped out on
GKIS.
*******
Learning
to trust knowledge and act upon it and not give in to the seduction of greed is
a big problem for me. I had a good plan with yesterday's trade on GNTA. I didn't
stick to my plan and ended up with a very small profit. As the stock rises, brain
activity is high. As the stock declines, brain freezes.
*******
I
am not xenophobic. Maybe it's because so many of the people I come into contact
with are 1st generation Americans. I teach piano to 34 kids and one adult. Here's
the breakdown:
10 "Americans"
5 Chinese
3 Iranians
2 Greeks
2
Russians
2 Pakastanians
2 Japanese
2 Canadians
1 each: Turkey, Indian,
Korean, Israli, Swiss, and 2 with parents from 2 different countries.
As
far as I can tell, all of these kids and their families love America and embrace
our diverse culture.
I hope they are never subjected to the kind
of hatred espoused by entertainers like Michael Savage. The man is truly hateful,
but somehow he appeals, in a very effective manner, to a large number of "angry
white men."
In the past, these kind of feelings would have had
me running to short satellite radio or something equally foolish. Now I just short
what I feel are mispriced stocks, even if I happen to like the company and it's
products.
*******
I day traded GNTA for a
small profit yesterday, Well maybe. It's still in my portfolio and I'm hoping
for a little pop at the opening to get me out with a few extra bucks. This kind
of nonsense has got me into trouble the whole month. One advantage to trading
small stocks - Cramer won't be talking about them.
Feb
27
Some of the best investment books have dumb titles. I wouldn't
call Rule
the Freakin' Markets by Michael Parness the best book I've ever read
on investment, but it's to the point. It doesn't cover many aspects of investing
but it deals with the technique of trading quite well and is worth the hour or
so it takes to read it.
*******
Only a miracle
will save my track record for February but I'll be trying to hit a few singles
in the closing days, not swinging for the fences. I departed from my usual trading
style this month and the results were poor.
*******
Seems
like everyone thinks Intel is headed lower. (I don't) Since my profit has now
totally evaporated, let me restate for my own edification, my latest trading rule.
Place
a stop order at the break even point once a 2.5% gain has been achieved.